Hello esteemed readership of Moldova Cornhusker! It is my distinct honor and pleasure to be a guest blogger here. This region of the world has been in the news recently, and so I was invited to provide a blog post to shed some light on the bigger picture surrounding these events.
For the past several months, Russia and Ukraine have been embroiled in a conflict that has pulled Europe and the United States into the mix as well. Now, Ukraine finds itself robbed of Crimea, and fighting for several regions in the eastern part of the country. There have been a lot of theories put forward about how this all happened, and what it says about power in the region and in the world. But I think it is important to pull back a little and look at what this conflict means as a whole.
To understand this, let’s begin with Russia. Russia has a long history, and has enjoyed various periods in its history when it was a considerable power on the world stage. Most recently, as the controlling republic in the Soviet Union, Russia controlled one fifth of the world’s land, had significant influence over countries in Eastern Europe, Latin America, and southeast Asia, and was one of only two superpowers in the world, considered on the same level as the United States.
Much has changed. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, many of its old European allies joined the European Union, and its other allies could no longer depend on it for support. It shrank from being a global power to a regional power, and for a decade, was lectured by the West about its failed experiment with communism. For a country with so very much pride, it was very humiliating.
It was in this context that Vladimir Putin entered the Russian political scene. With ambitions to return Russia to the global stage, Putin had a vision for a much stronger Russia, and began several initiatives to try to realize it. Putin envisions a customs union, similar to the EU that would encompass many of the old Soviet republics. Belarus and Kazakhstan joined Russia in this customs union – but no one else. Instead, the Western institutions of the EU and NATO march ever closer as more and more countries join them.
Moldova and Ukraine are two of the most recent countries that Russia has eyed for membership to its customs union, but have contemplated EU membership instead. To understand this significance, let’s give a little background on Moldova and Ukraine, whose histories are not the same, but similar enough recently to draw parallels. Both Moldova and Ukraine have populations that are divided. Roughly half dislike Russia and have aspirations to join the EU and grow closer to the West. These people also often tend to favor speaking their national language, Romanian and Ukrainian. The other half tend to be suspicious of the EU and more comfortable with closer ties with Russia. These people often are ethnic Russians, or non-majority ethnicities, and often prefer to speak Russian.
In 2013, the opportunity for greater ties with the EU came in the form of an Association Agreement, an accord that would be the first step to EU membership. In Moldova, the pro-EU government declared its intent to sign the agreement, to no one’s surprise. In Ukraine, the normally pro-Russia government of President Victor Yanukovych also declared its intent to sign the agreement, to the surprise of many.
Putin responded to both countries by embargoing imports from those countries, and threatening hikes in the price of natural gas. He leaned heavily on both, but especially on Ukraine, to renege on the agreement, with the promise of debt relief and lower gas prices. Days before the association agreement was signed, President Yanukovych went back on his commitment to sign the Association Agreement, and accepted Putin’s many generous offers. Most analysts believed this was his intent all along, leveraging the threat of closer ties with the EU to extract ever-greater gifts from Russia. Moldova signed the agreement, along with Georgia and Azerbaijan.
What Yanukovych didn’t anticipate was the extent to which this would anger the Ukrainian people. Protestors streamed into Maidan Square in Kiev, and stayed there through the freezing winter and into the spring. The protests were largely peaceful, but towards the beginning of spring, turned violent. Yanukovych was forced from office, by the Ukrainian protesters and under pressure from the US and European governments. He fled to Russia.
For Putin, this was a turning point. Despite his tremendous effort, he had lost Ukraine. With surprising speed, he annexed Crimea and incorporated it into Russia. This gave the impression of Russian strength. But like many impressions, it is wrong.
Putin set out with the vision of expanding Russian power and bringing other, smaller nations under its influence as had been in the past. Ukraine was a key part of that vision. Strategically, Ukraine would be a buffer between Russia and the West, and had the incredibly important naval base of Sevastopol in Crimea, from which Russia projected naval power into the Mediterranean. Historically, the Russian Empire was born in what is now Ukraine. In fact, its old capital was once Kiev. Culturally, the Ukraine people are Slavic, just as Russians are. And economically, while not as big as Russia, Ukraine is big, and would have contributed enormously to an economic union that Russia would dominate.
However, by moving towards Europe, Putin was left with a difficult choice. If he let Ukraine drift towards Europe, Russia would likely eventually lose access to the naval base in Crimea, and would be finished as a naval power forever. If he annexed Crimea, he would remove a large part of the pro-Russian electorate in Ukraine, ensuring that future governments would always be dominated by pro-EU politicians, essentially ceding Ukraine to the West forever. In the end, he chose to annex Crimea.
Putin’s actions have had several very negative consequences for Russia. Not long ago, it was perceived by many as a modern and rising power economically, one of the BRIC nations, and spoke on international affairs with a degree of respect. Much of that credibility has been lost. Putin has preserved Russia’s access to Crimea, but the peninsula itself was subsidized by Ukraine, and will certainly need subsidies from Russia. Indeed, part of the Crimeans motivation for seeking Russian annexation was the expectation that their quality of life would improve. So now, Putin must deliver that, at Russia’s expense.
His actions have also drawn the condemnation and sanctions from the West, pushing Russia closer to recession at a time when its economy is already weak. His justification for the annexation, a right to intervene militarily to protect ethnic Russians wherever they live, has struck fear into countries that also host ethnic Russians. Already, NATO is building its military presence in the Baltics and Poland – exactly the opposite of what Putin would like to see. And the former Soviet republics in Central Asia are seeking closer ties with China to assert their independence from Russia.
Putin’s actions have made him very popular among Russians, and have left Western populations feeling like their leaders are weak, especially in the United States. But these opinions couldn’t be further from the truth. Putin brought all of his influence to bear on Yanukovich to bring Ukraine into line. But the opposing influence of Western governments ultimately pushed him out. Instead of enjoying a newly empowered and glorified Russia, with its neighbors solidly in its sphere of influence, Russia is using its influence to keep them fractured and unstable. By inserting his influence into Moldova’s breakaway region of Trandsnistrea, and provoking further violence in Ukraine’s eastern regions of Luhansk and Donetsk, he can make them ineligible for membership in the EU and hold the West at bay. It is a far cry from what he had hoped for.
Philip Schnorbach serves in the rayon center of Ștefan Voda in Moldova, working as a consultant to the business incubator there. Outside of being involved in several different youth business education initiatives, he likes to spend time with his host family, his English club, and his favorite Moldova Cornhusker up the road.
